Analysis: BTC Rebound Fails to Break Through "Phase Bull/Bear" Divide, Some Investors Shift Toward End of Trend View
BlockBeats News, October 22nd, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that BTC's Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP) is considered the dividing line of a "phased bull market" or a bull/bear sentiment indicator. When the price touches STH-RP and quickly rebounds, it indicates that new investors not only did not consider selling near their cost basis but also attracted more buying interest, demonstrating market confidence in future trends.
Emotional shifts within a trend are typically divided into the following 3 stages:
Stage 1: BTC slightly falls below STH-RP and then experiences a sharp rebound. During this stage, investors have confidence in the trend, believing that short-term pullbacks are opportunities.
Stage 2: BTC significantly drops below STH-RP and then sees a modest rebound. At this point, investor confidence weakens, but some still believe the trend is not over.
Stage 3: BTC's rebound fails to surpass STH-RP. During this stage, investors uniformly doubt the trend. Once the rebound returns to the cost line, they tend to exit to seek safety.
From September 26th to 28th, BTC retraced to around $109,000 (slightly below STH-RP) and then strongly rebounded to $125,000 (a significant rebound), corresponding to Stage 1. On October 17th, the STH-RP price was $113,000. At this time, BTC retraced to around $104,000, which qualifies as a significant drop. Yesterday evening, the surge touched the STH-RP and then retreated. Analysts believe the market is currently in Stage 2 or transitioning from Stage 2 to Stage 3.
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